Archive for the ‘SSYS’ category

3D Printing – We’ve Seen this Before

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Twice I have expressed my opinion on the 3D printing companies. In my first note (here) I called the top for all 4 of the 3D printing stocks (DDD, SSYS, XONE, VJET). In my second note (here) I confirmed that the ridiculous January 17 “candy press release” (here) did indeed mark the top and that it was “over” for these companies (with the caveat that rallies would be forthcoming; for two of these stocks a nice rally did follow). Today I’d like to make another comment for anyone holding out hope on the long side: you are going to continue to lose a lot of money while short sellers like me make a killing. We should all know how this story ends because we’ve witnessed it before, albeit on a much larger scale. Courtesy of The Fly, here’s a reminder of what the dot com crash felt like (Nov 6th is probably the best analog of where the 3D printing stocks are today; that date is in bold below):

March 6th, 2000: $170 (looks sweet, new highs)
March 27th: $120 (buy the dip?)
April 3rd: $78.5 (got to buy it now, yes?)
April 10th: $48.94 (this is just ridiculous)
April 17th: $64.56 (that’s better)
April 24th: $78.50 (the bull is back)
May 1st: $86 (kill the bears)
May 30th: $90 (get some)
June 17th: $138 (c’mon, son)
August 14th: $167.19 (buying a new house and lambo, cuz I bought the dip)
August 30th: $142 (no biggie, a little profit taking)
Sept 11: $105 (was that a double top?)
Sept 18th: $117 (here we go again. Back to new highs?)
Sept 25th: $105 (maybe not)
Oct 2nd: $78 (that was a double top)
Oct 16th: $85 (we’re bouncing here)
Nov 6th: $59 (maybe we’ll retest the lows then bounce. Crazy tape)
Dec 4th: $64 (holding steady. I like the consolidation)
Dec 18th: $35 (taking out new lows, the bottom dropped out)
Jan 2nd, 2001: $33 (new year, fresh start)
Jan 16th: $50 (atta boy)
Jan 29th: $29 (more of the same. This market sucks)
Feb 20th: $20 (where is this thing going, zero?)
March 5th: $14 (wow, what a value!)
March 26th: $10 (I can’t believe this stock was $170 last year)
April 2nd: $7 (ruinous. That was the bubble)

Below are charts of DDD, SSYS, XONE and VJET – the numbers in the chart represent the dates I published my previous notes:

DDD Chart 7-Apr-14

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SSYS Chart 7-Apr-14

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XONE Chart 7-Apr-14

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VJET Chart 7-Apr-14

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If you are long, you still have time to get out before your loss becomes “ruinous”.

3D Printing (DDD, SSYS, XONE, VJET) It’s Over

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On January 19, I called the end of the 3D printing hysteria. Since then, Andrew Left at Citron put out another short report on DDD, DDD warned  and the entire space has crumbled. Here are the stock prices then versus today:

DDD Return 02 05 14

Dare I say candy did indeed mark the top?

P.S. These stocks are going lower. Much lower. But rallies will inevitably come so manage your positions like a professional.

3D Printing (DDD, SSYS, XONE, VJET)

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Hype Cycle Curve

I find the Gartner Hype Cycle to be a useful analytical framework because it marries technological trends with behavioral finance. It’s not a perfect timing tool, but it does help crystallize the role that hype plays in the adoption of new technology and it helps explain the valuation (or over-valuation) of certain sub-sectors of the market.

Case in point: 3D printing.

3D printing is all the rage. It’s a factory in a box – it’s changing the world. With 3D printing, everything you wear will be customized to fit your unique body. It’s this remarkable story, re-cast and re-told by the media that has led us to where we are today – the peak of the hype cycle.

 3D Printing - Gartner Hype Cycle

I believe last week’s announcement between Hershey’s and 3D Systems marks the top of the hype cycle. Yes, I am going on record saying that the top is in. It’s time to short all of ’em: DDD, SSYS, XONE and VJET.